Editor – Sudan Scope
Amid the ongoing bloody war ravaging Sudan since April 2023, concerns are growing about a vicious cycle of economic and social collapse. In this context, the African Development Bank has released a comprehensive analytical report examining the structural challenges hindering economic recovery in Sudan. The report directly links these challenges to the militarization of the economy, systematic corruption, and the collapse of state institutions.
This coincides with the findings of a study conducted by the team of economic experts at Sudan Scope, published on June 26, 2025, titled “War in Sudan: Economic Decline and Paths to Recovery.” The study analyzed the manifestations of economic collapse through the lens of war’s impact on productive and living sectors, and offered a preliminary vision for possible recovery pathways. Both the Bank’s report and the Sudan Scope study agreed on the necessity of ending the war as the first and foremost condition for recovery, emphasizing that no economic reform is possible without halting the conflict. However, Sudan Scoop added a critical dimension by linking recovery to a comprehensive political process that ensures the dismantling of corruption networks and the restructuring of institutions.
The African Development Bank’s 33-page report (report link attached) highlights the following key points:
First:
Sudan’s real GDP is projected to shrink by 12.8% in 2024, following a 37.5% contraction in 2023—the largest decline in the country’s economic history.
Due to the ongoing war, GDP is expected to shrink again by 0.6% in 2025, as economic activity remains weak.
Second:
GDP is forecasted to grow by 1.3% in 2026, assuming a peace agreement is reached in 2025.
Accordingly, for Sudan to accelerate structural transformation, it will need to close an annual financing gap of $24.3 billion, a gap not covered by official development assistance, foreign direct investment, external debt, or remittances.
Third:
Sudan’s economy is heavily dependent on its natural resources, particularly oil, gold, and agricultural land. Therefore, political and security stability is vital to fully benefit from these resources.
Fourth:
Systematic corruption and weak governance have undermined the optimal use of resources and obstructed investment. Political instability and conflict severely hinder foreign direct investment, creating an unwelcoming environment for investors and risking a sharp decline in this type of investment.
Fifth:
Resolving conflicts is a fundamental factor in improving governance and reducing corruption, which would lead to a better investment climate and greater economic and social stability.
Sixth:
The impacts and challenges resulting from the conflict in Sudan since April 2023 can be summarized as follows:
- Rooted Power Networks:
The dominance of security institutions over economic sectors, particularly during times of conflict, fosters corruption and weak governance. - Institutional Capture:
In the absence of strong, independent oversight mechanisms, public assets are easily mismanaged, and reforms are stifled. - Service Delivery Failure:
Justice, healthcare, education, and environmental protection are paralyzed, deepening social and economic vulnerabilities. - Conflict-Driven Corruption:
Ongoing war fuels looting and black market economies, accelerating institutional deterioration.
The conclusions drawn by both the African Development Bank and Sudan Scope stress that Sudan’s crisis is no longer merely one of resources or declining economic indicators. It is a structural governance crisis fueled by armed conflict, accelerating systemic collapse. Talk of reconstruction or economic revitalization is meaningless without dismantling the war economy and rebuilding institutions grounded in transparency and accountability.
While the economic challenge is immense, the political pathway "ending the war and restructuring the state" is the only viable gateway to building a new Sudan, one capable of achieving genuine development and delivering a dignified life for its people.
