Exclusive- Sudan Scope
Dr. Hamid Al-Bashir, a UN expert and former governor of South Kordofan State, warned that the war is becoming increasingly concentrated in the Kordofan region, which poses a serious threat to Sudan’s national cohesion. He added that Kordofan serves as the bridge connecting the western and central parts of the country, noting that the region links the agricultural and pastoral belts and occupies a broad area that brings together diverse cultures, ethnic groups, and identities. Therefore, any collapse there could lead to the destruction of the social fabric.
Speaking at the "Sudan Scope" forum advocating for Kordofan, Dr. Hamid Al-Bashir said that addressing the humanitarian catastrophe in Kordofan requires a scientific and critical examination of the economic impacts of the war across the region as a whole. He explained that there has been an almost complete collapse of the rain-fed agricultural sector and a breakdown of the pastoral belt. In Kordofan, livestock and agriculture are closely interconnected, and severe damage has occurred in this sector. There has also been a major collapse in forest-related economic activity, particularly fruit production, due to the lack of market access.
As an example, he noted that South Kordofan has around two million mango trees, but their produce has not reached markets and instead has become feed for the remaining cattle. He also pointed out that many citizens who owned livestock have lost their capital either because of aerial bombardments, direct looting, or the destruction of water resources. Consequently, large numbers of herders have become impoverished after losing their livestock.
The former governor of South Kordofan also highlighted the decline in gum arabic production, noting that the limited quantities being extracted are now transported through Chad and South Sudan. As a result, transportation costs have increased significantly, reducing the economic viability of this vital product.
He also pointed to the collapse of local trade in markets, saying that commercial activity has fallen to around 10% because of widespread looting, theft, and the closure of major roads. Poverty rates have reached nearly 90%, compared to 71% before the war, according to government publications. This has been driven by the halt in production, increasing tensions between herders and farmers, and rising unemployment in both urban and rural areas due to the lack of economic activity.
He added that this has severely weakened the middle class and contributed to the growth of the informal economy. Large numbers of young people have also been forced to leave the region and Sudan as a whole, while many others have become increasingly involved in risky activities such as drug trafficking, smuggling, and arms trading. Even youth not directly affiliated with the warring parties now have greater access to weapons.
The former governor and UN expert stated that the region had already been a hotspot for unlicensed weapons before the war, with an estimated 12 million firearms—more than the population itself. He predicted that the number has likely doubled because of the war and warned that these developments threaten the future of the region unless a comprehensive peace process is achieved. Otherwise, such issues could endanger Sudan’s unity.
Dr. Hamid Al-Bashir also stated that one of the most dangerous consequences of the war has been the erosion of Sudanese national identity and sentiment, particularly in western Sudan, which has become one of the most active zones of conflict.
He called for addressing both humanitarian and emotional/social issues together and stressed that planning should not focus solely on saving people from hunger. He argued that preserving a unified nation is equally important and emphasized the need for strategies aimed at rebuilding the damaged collective consciousness that has been undermined by media outlets where hate speech has spread at an unprecedented level in Sudan’s history.
