A Careful Reading of Foreign Trade Statistics

What Do the Data from the Central Bank of Sudan Reveal (January–September 2025)?

Port Sudan – Sudan Scope

Data on foreign trade published on the Central Bank of Sudan’s website for the period January–September 2025 show continued severe pressure on the trade balance, with a noticeable deterioration compared to 2024. Total merchandise exports during the first nine months of 2025 reached approximately $1.79 billion, while imports exceeded $4.28 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $2.49 billion.

By comparison, in 2024 Sudan recorded exports of $3.13 billion and imports of $4.91 billion, with a trade deficit of $1.78 billion. This means the deficit recorded in just nine months of 2025 exceeded the full-year deficit of 2024 by about 40%, a development that reflects a worsening imbalance in the country’s external position.

This sharp decline in exports, especially non-gold exports, is likely due to the major conflict between warring forces in production areas in Darfur and Kordofan. Evidence indicates that these exports are being sent through unofficial channels, meaning the country does not benefit from their foreign currency proceeds. The effects are clearly visible in several economic indicators, most notably the exchange rate.

In this report, we review the latest developments through an in-depth analysis of export and import trends. We also use the bilateral trade relationship between Sudan and Egypt as an illustrative example.

First: Latest Developments in the Export Sector According to official data, exports during January–September 2025 represented only 57% of total 2024 exports, a relatively low level given import needs. This performance reflects weak export capacity, particularly outside the gold sector, and the continuation of structural constraints that hinder the recovery of non-traditional exports, which the current war has severely worsened.

Second: Latest Developments in the Import Sector Imports during the same period reached about 87% of total 2024 imports, indicating sustained high demand for imports despite falling exports. This pattern shows a lack of adjustment on the import side and continued heavy reliance on foreign sources to meet basic and productive needs.

Third: Performance of the Trade Balance. The clear divergence between export and import trajectories has led to an unprecedented widening of the trade deficit in 2025. The largest part of this deficit was concentrated in the third quarter, where the deficit accelerated sharply with declining exports and rising imports — especially in August and September — reflecting mounting pressure on external resources. Fourth: Analysis of the Structure of Merchandise Exports.

The commodity export table (linked in the original report) reveals a high concentration in the export structure during January–September 2025:

  • Gold: $1.05 billion (approximately 59% of total exports). Only about 10.9 tons were officially exported, while the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Minerals reported official production of 70 tons for 2025. This indicates a massive volume of production is leaving the country through unofficial channels.
  • Total non-gold merchandise exports: Approximately $736 million (about 41% of the total).

After gold, the main items are:

  • Live animals (16%)
  • Sesame (12%)
  • Gum arabic, cotton, and watermelon seeds at lower percentages.

Industrial and manufactured exports remain marginal, limiting the economy’s ability to generate stable and growing revenues. Overall, although gold remains the main pillar of exports, the 2025 figures show even greater dependence on it compared to 2024, amid a clear weakness in other exports. This pattern increases the trade balance’s vulnerability to fluctuations in production and official export channels.

Fifth: Developments in Sudanese Exports to Egypt (January–September 2025)In 2022, Sudanese exports to Egypt rose to about $680.4 million, driven by the official emergence of gold exports ($107.6 million), strong performance of sesame and livestock, and expansion in agricultural exports including watermelon seeds and sorghum.

The emergence of gold marked a clear structural shift, but a sharp decline occurred during the war period.

By December 2024, recorded exports had fallen to about $277 million due to war-related production losses, disrupted supply chains, and the collapse of formal trade finance mechanisms. Gold exports showed greater resilience than agricultural ones, consistent with their reliance on controlled corridors and networks linked to military institutions rather than broad-based economic activity.

During January–September 2025, exports recovered slightly to about $269.1 million, but with a highly concentrated structure: gold alone accounted for $130.4 million (about 48% of the total), followed by much lower levels of sesame and livestock.

This pattern confirms that the recovery was not driven by a return of productive activity, but by rentier and extractive flows rather than agricultural and livestock exports as in previous periods, highlighting the devastating effects of the war.

Sixth: Latest Developments in Sudanese Imports from Egypt, Sudanese imports from Egypt declined during the period, but their commodity composition changed substantially.

Before the war, imports were concentrated on industrial goods and chemicals. Starting in 2024, amid the war and the collapse of local production capacity, imports became increasingly focused on basic consumer goods, primarily wheat, flour, and other foodstuffs.

Food imports from Egypt rose sharply during the war. Wheat and flour imports increased more than eightfold between 2021 and 2024 and remained at high levels during the first nine months of 2025.This highlights Sudan’s acute dependence on food imports and Egypt’s ability to rapidly expand exports of essential goods to Sudan.

At the same time, imports of capital and intermediate goods, machinery, transport equipment, and raw materials declined markedly compared to previous years, consistent with reduced investment, disrupted production chains, and heightened uncertainty. This indicates a shift from growth-supporting imports to short-term consumption goods aimed at securing basic livelihoods.

Seventh: Development of the Bilateral Trade Balance Between Sudan and Egypt (January–September 2025).

The bilateral trade relationship shows a structurally asymmetrical pattern: Egypt consistently records trade surpluses that have widened significantly during the current war. The war has deepened Egypt’s gains by reinforcing Sudan’s dependence on consumer imports while sharply reducing Sudan’s export base, further widening existing value-added and diversification gaps. The bilateral trade balance remained negative for Sudan (i.e., a sustained positive surplus for Egypt) across all observed periods.

Policy Message

In our assessment, the challenges facing the external sector are structural, not cyclical or temporary. The war has exacerbated the situation to an unprecedented degree in Sudan’s history. Sudan’s chronic and growing trade deficit reflects a combination of weak export diversification, excessive dependence on a few commodities without focus on value addition, and persistently high import levels. Without reforms aimed at boosting other commodity exports, increasing value addition, and improving foreign trade management, the trade balance will remain a major source of pressure on economic and financial stability.

None of this will be achieved without stopping the war and reaching a satisfactory political solution, followed by a phase of serious reform and the adoption of clear economic and financial policies supported by a well-defined reform program that leads to sustainable recovery in Sudan’s internal and external balances.